President Names Supreme Court Nominee

President Barack Obama confirmed weeks of speculation in naming Judge Sonia Sotomayor his first selection to the Supreme Court. The consensus opinion from Democrats is that she is a level headed juror who considers the implications of the decisions she makes, Republicans will call her “liberal,” “activist,” and will question her temperament. But I’m most concerned with the opinions of the legal scholars and intellectuals who think her opinions are not as strong as the opinions of past liberal thinkers like John Marshall Harlan, or William Brennan.

Supreme Court nominations are much more complicated than they were even just twenty five years ago. Then, a nominee would be named, and the Senate would simply look over their credentials, and vote. There could be rocky nomination processes, but it was relatively easy to get a pick on the court compared to today. Activists, lobbyists, and of course the opposing party in the Senate will all throw roadblocks in the Presidents general direction to try and trip up the nomination process. Getting a nominee on the court now is a lot like running an election. The President will appeal to the public in order to pressure their Senators into voting for the nominee. Expect to see the President making trips to various parts of the county to sell the pick to the public. Also, just as the President became the first candidate to make truly effective use of the internet as a campaign tool, you can expect the White House to use tools like Facebook, MySpace, and YouTube to try and sell the pick.

I said a few weeks ago that the GOP would try to use this vacancy to knock the President once in the jaw just because they need the political victory. I still believe that. This could be a case where the Republicans could pick themselves up off the mat so to speak. But in order for that to happen, the GOP will have to truly band together in opposition, and I just do not know if that can happen this time around. There are the usual suspects like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins whom Democrats will try to pick off in order to defeat the filibuster, and you better believe the White House will be putting pressure on the newest Democrat in the Senate, Arlen Specter, to do what he is supposed to.

That would give Democrats more than enough votes to defeat a filibuster. But will the GOP go that far? They have to balance their need to defeat the Obama administration at least once before the 2010 midterms on major legislation with their equally important need of not angering a certain key constituency any more than they already have: Hispanic Americans. Ever since former President Bush embarked on one of the two most ill-informed policy crusades of his Presidency, his illegal-immigration reform package in spring 2006, Hispanics have been none too pleased with the GOP. Obama won Hispanics with almost 70% of the vote last fall. Hispanic activist groups will push hard for Sotomayor, and the GOP may crumble under the pressure and concede the President’s choice.

They may. I don’t think they will. After all, the GOP has already shown that they believe every demographic group is expendable as long as they hold on the Christian conservatives. So where will the conservative activist groups fall on Sotomayor? Guess.

Ironically, the GOP may not be able to use their favorite SCOTUS issue against Sotomayor. In the Federal Appeals Court, she actually voted against a pro choice group in the only case she heard concerning the issue of abortion. In any case, while most pundits are predicting an easy confirmation, I’m not going to hold my breath. After all, no one thought the GOP would be as united as it was against the Stimulus package.