Never mind that you did, Specter (the exact quote was “I'm a loyal Democrat. I support your agenda.”), but the point here is that Joe Torsella is still planning to run in the Democratic primary. Specter may be able to dispose of him fairly easily, but not without spending some cash. And even if he could dispose of Torsella easily, I doubt he could do the same with Congressman Joe Sestak, who last I checked was considered a possibility for a Democratic nominee when Specter was still a Republican. If Sestak runs, I’m not all that convinced that the Specter who made the “I did not say I would be a loyal Democrat” comments actually wins a Dem primary.
Even if Specter gets through the Democratic primary unscathed, which he could, he then will be dealing with the possibility of a GOP challenge from Tom Ridge, who will make a decision if he wants to run in the next two weeks. Commentators have been projecting that the only way the GOP wins against Specter now is if they find a candidate who is equally strong in the big cities as he is in the suburbs and rural areas of Pennsylvania, and Ridge would be that man.
My guess is that Specter made his comments thinking that he will not get a serious primary challenge, and is looking to hold the center long before any winner of the GOP primary can hope to do so. It’s not a bad strategy, but by pledging to still vote against Card Check, he is ruining his chances at a good endorsement from the AFL-CIO which would be immensely useful in putting down a primary opponent and mobilizing support for the general. He is also ruining his chances with potential fundraising from a new core of important contributors in the Democratic Party; the liberal blogosphere.
So the Pennsylvania Senate seat may be slipping from our collective Democratic grasp sooner than anticipated. The same could be happening in Kentucky where rumors have been swirling recently with unusual frequency about the possibility of a Jim Bunning retirement. First, he was apperantly sending a thinly veiled signal about his impending retirement when he decided to stay in Washington DC instead of attending the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Then he was supposed to announce his retirement at a GOP dinner Saturday night. He did not. What he did do was issue a scathing statement about his courageous leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell:
“Do you realize that under our dynamic leadership of our leader, we have gone from 55 and probably to 40 (Senate seats) in two election cycles, and if the tea leaves that I read are correct, we will wind up with about 36 after this election cycle. So if leadership means anything, it means you don’t lose … approximately 19 seats in three election cycles with good leadership.”
eesh. That’s a stinger. The most recent whispers surrounding Bunnings’s so called “impending” retirement had to do with his admittedly anemic fundraising numbers. He issued a typical non-denial denial in which he said that he has no plans on retiring and would only consider retirement if his fundraising numbers are down. Well they are, so he didn’t really say anything much there did he?
You might have guessed that I remain skeptical about anything to do with Bunning’s future plans. My most reasonable guess is that he will announce his retirement at the end of the next fundraising quarter when a new round of rumors starts up. But then again, Bunning has shown himself to be fundamentally unreasonable when trying to stick it to his own party, so I seriously can’t issue a forecast as to what will happen.
