2010 Senate Watch Part Two

Yesterday, I looked at the seats in the Senate which are most likely to switch parties, and could lead to heavy competition. Today, I want to switch it up and look at the vulnerable candidates. This is the second part of my three day analysis of the upcoming 2010 Senate races.

These are Vulnerable candidates that the opposing party will surly target in an effort to pick up seats, but may have difficulty winning due to other factors. They may be vulnerable in primaries, but not the general.

•Chris Dodd- D-CT; Despite decent fundraising ($1.4 million in the bank so far) and his incumbency based in what would normally be considered a safe blue state, Chris Dodd has one major disadvantage. As chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, he is in part responsible for, well, everything bad that has happened to the economy. From the uninhibited predatory lending, to the fiasco surrounding the first bailout, Dodd’s complacency has put him in the company of men who have been vilified for almost a year now concerning the state of America’s economy. About seven Republicans have so far raised the possibility of running against Dodd, and four of them have already organized campaign structures. Unless the economy turns around quickly, Dodd could be the sole Democratic loss in 2010. So why only call him “vulnerable” and not a straight toss up? His fundraising and lack of primary opponent gives him an advantage, as does being from a blue state. Also, the President just today pledged his support to Dodd in his campaign for re-election.

•Roland Burris- D-IL; Appointed to the Senate by disgraced former Governor Rod Blagojevich, Burris has been haunted by pay to play rumors ever since he assumed President Obama’s old seat. Those rumors intensified when he told the press about a fundraiser he tried to put on for the former Governor in November of 2008. Burris’ fundraising has been anemic. He raised a grand total of $843 in the first quarter of the year (alongside $111,032 in debt to legal aid). If he somehow makes it through a primary challenge, then Republicans have a real shot at picking Burris’ seat off. But he has to have enough juice to win a primary campaign. I don’t think he does. If any other Democrat wins the primary, then the seat stays blue.

•Arlen Specter- R-PA- Specter has been endlessly criticized by Republicans for agreeing to vote for the President’s stimulus package, and that criticism has been strong enough for several conservatives to begin campaigns to mount primary challenges against him, such as Larry Murphy and former Congressman Pat Toomey. If that weren’t bad enough for Specter, he is also looking at a litany of Democrats who see Pennsylvania slipping to the left, and view Specter as vulnerable. These Democrats include the state’s AG, Josh Shapiro, and former NFL player, and Steelers star Franco Harris, who seems to be a legitimate Democratic activist. All this adds up to an expensive campaign for a moderate Republican suffering the ire of the NRSC. But even so, if Specter can pull out of the primary on top, and if Democrats are unable to find better candidates then the ones they currently have, then Specter should be ok.

•Michael Bennet- D-CO; Colorado has been tilting left for the past couple elections, but the question remains, as in Missouri, is that pendulum prepared to swing back to the right? Bennet has never run for public office before, and his fundraising has not been spectacular. Add to that a clear lack of popular support (a PPP poll released today states that 41% of voters disapprove of Bennet's performance so far, with just 34% saying they approve) and Bennet seems clearly vulnerable. If a well funded, experienced Republican runs against him, Bennet could have a tough time winning re-election. Republicans are lining up to take him on, including two former congressmen, and a popular Colorado radio personality. If Tom Tancredo is able to with the Republican primary, this race goes straight to the toss up bin.

•Harry Ried- D-NV; Reid is not the strongest majority leader the Democrats have ever had, but he is strong enough to bring home massive amounts of money for his campaign war chest. Reid has $5 million in the bank already, so he could stop fundraising now if he wanted, and he would be ok until the last few weeks of the campaign. The Republican bench in Nevada isn’t incredibly deep, but it is deep enough that some strong candidates could be had, such as the Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki or ex-congressman Jon Porter who lost his seat to Dina Titus in 2008.