2010 Senate Watch, Part One

A few months ago, I looked at the upcoming 2010 Senate races, and did a brief capsule on the races I thought would be important to watch. That list has doubled in the weeks since then, and as such, I decided to put together all the races that Democrats need to keep an eye on.

Democrats are looking to target a lot of Republican seats. We have to remember after all, the GOP has essentially pinned themselves to the idea that none of the Democratic responses to the recession would work, and have become the steadfast opposition to the economic policies of the Obama administration. If the economy has recovered by fall 2010, then there is little reason to believe that Democrats won’t dismantle the Republicans even worse than they did in 2008.

On the other hand, if the economy tumbles again, then the GOP could gain as many as five seats in an effort to eliminate the threat of a Democratic filibuster proof majority.

Or, the economy could recover too quickly, which would allow people’s attention to wander, or the economy could recover just enough to ease fears from the market, but not enough to make consumers feel truly confident. In either of those cases, then everything likely stays the same.

Today, we will be looking at the targets. These are the incumbents in the weakest position. If they win their party’s nomination, they are still in dire straits.

· Florida (R)- Republican Mel Martinez has announced his retirement, and given Florida’s status as a swing state, you better believe that both parties are going to be going after the seat pretty aggressively. On the Republican side, both Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist have been rumored as possibilities to replace Mel, though Jeb might pass if the Bush family name is still too torn, and Crist has been sending mixed signals. No Democrat with equal name recognition has stepped forward.

· Ohio (R)- George Voinovich will be retiring at the end of his current term, and Ohio is a huge swing state, so both parties will be targeting the seat. Between the two parties and independents, there are already fifteen candidates who have intentions on running. The most likely Republican to win GOP primary is Mike DeWine, a former Senator who lost his bid for re-election in the Democratic wave of 2006. The Democratic side is slightly better stacked. The Dem primary will come down to Congressman Zach Space, State Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, or the Lt. Governor Lee Fischer. DeWine lost by 12% in 2006, and didn’t have the support of Conservative Republicans, and there isn’t much to make me think that any of the other declared Republicans are any more serious. This seat is likely to switch to the Democrats.

· Missouri (R)- If you are starting to catch a trend here, its because there is one. For the third election in a row, Republicans are dealing with massive defections via retirement. Kit Bond’s departure from the Senate could prove especially harmful because it would give momentum to a state Democratic party in Missouri which already has tons of momentum, electing Claire McCaskill in 2006, and sending 11 electoral votes to Barack Obama in 2008. Robin Carnahan, the state Secretary of State is the odds on favorite to win the Democratic primary, and a seat in the Senate. Roy Blunt, who lost to McCaskill, is the favorite to win the GOP nomination, but he is already looking at three other primary opponents, including Congressman Sam Graves (CD-6).

· New Hampshire (R)- Another GOP retirement in a state in which the Democrats can easily field a winner, Obama won NH in 2008, and despite its conservative nature, NH is still a blue state. Paul Hodes, a Democratic Congressman, is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, while there are eight names which could possibly show up on the GOP side. If Democrats press their recourses hard enough, they will win this race.

· David Vitter- R-LA. Vitter is about a sure to lose his seat in the Senate as anyone could be. After getting caught up with a D.C. area call girl, Vitter’s conservative credentials have been under constant criticism. He is looking a primary challenge dead in the eye from state Secretary of State, and possibly even Bobby Jindal, who is trying to find a way onto the national stage to make his run at the White House more effective. Swear to god, there is even a female adult film star named, I kid you not, Stormy Daniels who is contemplating a run as a Republican She is from Louisiana. Why in the world would you make the subtitle of your draft website, “A Tsunami in the Making”? I would say that it is all a big joke, but she does not seem to think it is. Even if Bunning is able to win his primary, which he might not given his possible competition, then he still has the prospects of facing stiff competition from one of eight Democrats planning a run, including a prominent businessman, a sitting Congressman, a couple of other ex-congressmen, a former Governor, the Lt. Governor (who just happens to be the brother of the other Senator from LA) and a State Senator.

· Jim Bunning- R-KY- Bunning must be incensed that the Cook Political Report has him listed as a possible retirement, a rumor that he has more than firmly denied ever since it first reared its ugly little head months ago. Kentucky’s senior Senator, Mitch McConnell, wants him out, and for obvious reasons. In 2004, Bush won the state by 20 points, but Bunning only won re-election by two points. His job approval is tanking. He has virtually no fundraising. Big name Democrats from the state are lining up to oppose him. If Bunning wins his primary, then he almost surly loses the general.