West Virginia and Nebraska Primaries

Well, today was primary day in West Virginia and Nebraska, with only West Virginia awarding any pledged delegates to the winner of the Presidential vote. Clinton won a predictable landslide in a state that couldn’t have been more demographically favorable if being a Clinton donor were a requirement to vote.

West Virginia (72% in)
Clinton----------168,941--------72%
Obama-----------69,291--------27%

It has to be embarrassing for the Obama campaign since all the press put forth in the last week was about how he is the inevitable nominee.

With super delegates committing en masse to Obama over the last week (at least twenty since Tuesday), the talk of the primaries is slowly turning towards the general election. Some high ranking democrats are already calling Obama the “presumptive nominee,” while the Obama campaign itself is acting as if Hilary Clinton has already dropped out.

The result has been an Obama campaign much more focused on the general election, and a Clinton campaign with toned down rhetoric. But what issues do we have to look at in the General election?

Age, is of course an issue. No matter how badly the McCain campaign doesn’t want age to be an issue, McCain would be 72 when taking the oath of office, making him 76 if he wins a second term. Yes, his doctors have declared him healthy, but the stress of the oval office will take its toll, and I don’t know how comfortable most Americans are with a candidate that old in the race.

Obama has been working to describe the McCain campaign as simply a third term for Bush. This is easily highlighted from McCain’s stance on Iraq, on Bush’s tax cuts, and on Gun control.

In Nebraska, here are the results to all the key races;

Nebraska
President
Obama-------30,800-------49%
Clinton-------29,529--------47%
Gravel---------2,548---------4%

Senate
Kleeb---------43,297-------68%
Raimondo-----15,994-------25%
Wilson---------2,269---------4%
Marvin---------1,844---------3%

Second Congressional District
Esch-----------14,798--------81%
Carter----------3,423--------19%

Midwest Democrat endorsed both Kleeb and Esch as the logical and strongest candidates against their Republican doppelgangers. They came out on top in demanding fashion in both cases, showing the Republicans that they will not be able to sleep walk through their campaigns this fall.

Raimondo surprised me quite a bit after polls closed when he claimed, without conceding defeat, that Kleeb was a “delightful young man,” and “will be the best candidate” to beat Johanns.

As of ten o’clock, the Richard Carter campaign had not conceded defeat to Jim Esch, despite the 60 point lead Esch has in the polls. Carter did claim, in a short press conference after polls closed, that he had “overcome” Esch’s name recognition with voters.

The results set up a rematch between Esch and Terry in CD-2, a seat that, even with Esch’s newfound support, still leans Republican. The same can be said of the Senate seat, that will be fought between Kleeb and Johanns. Terry is an incumbent, and Johanns might as well be an incumbent. It will take a lot to beat these Republicans, but if there is ever going to be a year to win these races, this is it.

News Bits Return!

I have finally finished finals for this semester, which means I can start dedicating more time to the website, time that it deserves. I’m going to start by running down some news stories for you, this is the first time I’ve run a news bits segment in about a month. Here we go;

It was slow to start, but it looks like super delegates are finally starting to break Obama’s way after the Indy/N.C. primaries. ABC News is reporting that Barack Obama has finally, after months of climbing, passed Hilary Clinton in the number of committed Super Delegates. CNN still has Obama down four, while Convention Watch still has Obama down five. Both CNN and Convention Watch are highly credible, they both will independently chase down super delegates to confirm their picks, as opposed to other agencies that just pick up AP reports and start counting. Either way, times are starting to get desperate for the Clintons, who have started asking super delegates to commit in private so they still know what their standing is. Of course, desperate times call for desperate measures, as these Clinton supporters show, who have started emailing uncommitted super delegates with threats to defect from the party unless they vote for Clinton.

In Nebraska news, Jim Esch, who Midwest Democrat endorsed yesterday for Nebraska’s Second Congressional seat, caused a firestorm when he announced that he was endorsing Tony Raimondo over Scott Kleeb in the Democratic Primary for Nebraska’s open Senate seat. Raimondo has also announced his decision to endorse Esch. It is highly unusual for candidates in contested primaries to endorse candidates from other contested primaries, and nothing about the relationship feels right. Esch has certainly angered part of his grassroots base, a base that helped him nearly beat Lee Terry in 2006, and has been supporting Scott Kleeb in the Senate race.

There is also a story making the rounds about Jim Esch plagiarizing an entire passage from a Brookings Institute memo. The plagiarism occurred in a blog post, where Esch had copied and pasted an email from an intern without realizing the intern was only emailing him a source. Esch apologized for the mistake, noting that it was his own fault that the citation was inadvertently left out.

NEBRASKA ENDORSEMENTS

After careful consideration, I ended up deciding that it is not unfair to endorse one candidate over another in a contested Democratic primary, especially when a major issue is electability. For this reason, Midwest Democrat is selecting preferred candidates in contested primaries.

Second Congressional District
JIM ESCH

Jim Esch and Richard Carter both have their strong and weak points. Jim Esch ran against the Republican incumbent for CD-2 in 2006, and lost a closer campaign then many thought he would. He ran an advanced campaign, relying on grassroots support and online contributions. And this time he will have more support from business leaders because of his newfound willingness to accept PAC money. The downside to another Esch run at Terry? Well, he did lose the first time, and while a ten point loss is closer than a lot of people thought he could do, it still isn’t a win, so Esch would have to make substantial gains with certain demographics this time to still have a chance. His flip-flop on PAC money could also hurt him, Terry will jump all over that.

Richard Carter hasn’t run for elective office before, but he has all the credentials he needs in order to beat Terry this year. With Americans largely fed up with the War in Iraq, he is running as a Democrat for pulling out of the war, and he has military experience to boot, giving him an edge on Terry who never served. With the economy extremely fragile, people may also look to Carter as a more qualified candidate due to his Masters degree in Economics.

Both are well suited to run against Terry, who is rated as one of the worst House members of either party.

Jim Esch’s decision to accept PAC money this fall caused a kind or knee jerk reaction here. I thought that it was maybe the only issue that brought him as close to victory as he got. So at first I was not enthused about this decision. But then I started seeing support come in from unions, and good natured PAC’s, and the influx of money may help Esch as much as turning it down did in 2006.

The Richard Carter campaign has had trouble to say the least trying to raise money even just for the primary. While a primary victory would ensure a large influx of case based solely on his status as the lone Democrat in the race, his troubles in the primary may reflect a wider problem that he would encounter in the general campaign, and that’s energizing a base of supporters along with newcomers into supporting his candidacy, something Esch didn’t have a problem with in ’06, and likely won’t have a problem with this year.

Perhaps the deciding issue for Midwest Democrat was the pseudo scandal wrought by the Carter campaign concerning drug testing. During the second debate between the two candidates, Richard Carter asked Jim Esch to join him in taking a drug test in order to serve as role models for children in impoverished neighborhoods. Esch agreed to take a drug test, but did not discuss a time in his answer. The Omaha World Herald sums up best what happened next:

“After the debate, Esch said, Carter handed him a piece of paper with an appointment for a 9 a.m. drug test this morning at a local clinic and asked him to meet there. Esch declined, saying he already had a full campaign schedule. Carter took the test - passing screenings for 10 different drugs, according to his campaign - while Esch scheduled a separate test at the Charles Drew Health Center in north Omaha.”

Whether or not the Carter campaign meant to insinuate that Jim Esch takes drugs or not, these kinds of hardball politics are not good for the Democratic Party, or for the country at large. I have to believe that he did mean to make that accusation, given the statement he released to the press on the issue, in which he states that he is “disappointed that Jim could not make this more of a priority with his campaign.”

Jim Esch represents not just the integrity that we come to expect from Democratic nominees, but the intelligence as well. Esch already has Terry beating on the door of the RNC for help, and he is ready to meet Terry, even if he gets all the help he needs from the GOP.

Nebraska Senate
SCOTT KLEEB

Scott Kleeb’s campaign has garnered national attention, not just from liberal and progressive blogs, but from national news agencies, like the New York Times, MSNBC, and CNN. He fought a losing battle against Adrian Smith in 2006 in the third congressional district, but nearly won the seat away from the Republican party. He is still floating in under Mike Johanns radar, and now will have the opportunity to, with national support, upend the Republican establishment in Nebraska by securing both Senate seats for the Democrats.

Tony Raimondo has failed to convince many, including the author of this website, that he has truly abandoned the Republican principles that he held as recently as four months ago before switching his party registration and becoming a Democrat. He has also failed to explain why he thinks he can beat Mike Johanns as a Democrat, but not as a Republican. His position on Iraq is best described as Republican. He has voiced opposition to universal health care, and hasn’t voiced opinions at all on poverty, or education. He has also failed to create any significant fundraising, taking almost all of his campaign cash out of his own wallet, while simultaneously failing to energize the Democratic party in Nebraska.

Kleeb represents a more genuine Democratic nominee, someone who isn’t afraid to stand up for Democratic principles, and has the best shot at taking down Mike Johanns in the general. Scott Kleeb is a true heavyweight.

INDY/N.C. FALLOUT

The press is starting to do today what I thought they would have done if Obama lost Pennsylvania by less than ten, and that’s start to count Hilary Clinton out. Even though she won Indiana, effectively splitting the two primary contests yesterday, the press is no longer talking about the resiliency of the Clinton campaign. Instead, the press is running stories like these showing Obama as closing in on the nomination. The Obama campaign is even beginning to shift its focus to the general election, promising to campaign in states that have already had primaries. News reports from last night have been confirmed, Hilary Clinton did lend her campaign more money since Pennsylvania, to the tune of 6.4 million dollars.

Clinton is already starting to campaign in the “Committee Primary,” where she will have to get the DNC rules and bylaws committee to flip flop on sanctions against Florida and Michigan, where the votes are not being counted. It will be incredibly hard for her to get those votes counted without some kind of condition attached given the nature of the committee in question.

So the question now is, “What can Barack Obama do to get Clinton out?” Its pretty obvious that one of three things is going on. Clinton is staying in it so as to ruin Obama’s chances against McCain in the fall so she can run again in 2012, Clinton is staying in until after West Virginia and Kentucky before stepping out so as not to embarrass Barack Obama, or she wants something from Barack Obama. Well, “what could she possibly want” you ask? She could want him to pay off her campaign debt. She could want him to adopt one of her policy positions. She could want input on who the VP will be (which would put Wes Clark in the mix, while almost assuredly excluding Bill Richardson).

Super delegates are already starting to switch. Former Presidential contender George McGovern, who endorsed Hilary Clinton in October, has switched sides urging Hilary to get out while the getting is good. Other than that though, super delegate movement has been virtually non-existent so far. Expect more in the coming days.

One more final left. Then I’m free, free, free.

INDY UPDATE IV (Final)

Indiana (99% in)
Clinton -------637,389-----51%
Obama-------615, 370-----49%

CNN is projecting that Clinton will win Indiana. This comes as the results from Lake County finally filtered in, giving Obama a 55-45% victory in the county, five points less then he would have needed to close the gap. It looks like blue collar voters in Hammond saved the day for Clinton in Indiana. The margin is 16,000 votes, which is more than the expected number of absentee ballots from Monroe county, making it pretty much impossible for Obama to come back any further.

It was an exciting night with Obama coming back from eleven points behind, chipping away at her lead to nine points, then seven, then four, then two. She narrowly preserves the split decision in NC/Indy. It’s important to keep in context the delegates. The last few hours have basically been a fight over one delegate. Clinton will most likely win 37 delegates to Obama’s 35. If you factor in North Carolina, Obama should win about sixteen more delegates then Clinton.

There is some theoretical arguments being made on DailyKos and MSNBC that Clinton may continue her campaign so she can win West Virginia and Kentucky before stepping aside in order to avoid embarrassing Obama. That exists in stark contrast to other theories that Clinton is staying in the race to ruin Obama’s chances against McCain, freeing her up to run again in 2012. Funny how this stuff works out.

Clinton is spinning their cancelling of the press arrangements as “not being cancelled because they were never officially scheduled.” She does have a fundraiser scheduled for tomorrow night that the press is invited to.

That’s it. I’m exhausted. I have a final tomorrow. I will post an update tomorrow on the fallout. Peace, I’m out.

INDY RESULTS PART III

Via CNN.com

Lake County (56% in)
Obama--------46,759-----65%
Clinton-------25,100------35%

Monroe County (98%in)
Obama--------11,865-----64%
Clinton---------6,611-----36%

Indiana (95% in)
Clinton------606,497----59%
Obama-------589,888----49%

It looks like blue collar voters are beginning to bring the Lake County vote back down to earth, offsetting the huge African American turnout in Gary. Remember, Obama only needs to win 60% of Lake County to win the state. I mention Monroe County because there are still about 11,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted from the University of Indiana, which could be a huge help to Obama. Clinton still has a 16,000 vote lead with 95% of precincts reporting.

INDY RESULTS PART DEUX

Lake County (Indiana) 25% in
Obama----------27,991---------75%
Clinton-----------9,470---------25%

This changes the overall results in Indiana to

Indiana
Clinton-------588,106---------51%
Obama--------568,149--------49%

Hilary Clinton has started canceling press events for tomorrow morning. Who knows what that means. Lake County is still being counted, with Gary Indiana being the primary town with votes still outstanding. Gary is a heavily African American town, the only question is “Are there enough votes out there?” Hammond, the other part of Lake County, is heavily blue collar, and could help Clinton fend Obama off.